You can find my academic and non-academic writing below. All publications are sorted in reverse chronological order.
In case a downloadable PDF is not available on the site, please contact me via email and I will be happy to send you a copy!
Journal Articles
2023
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Narrow and wide replication of Chalfin and McCrary (REStat, 2018)
Federico Crudu, and Advait Moharir
Journal of Applied Econometrics 2023
We undertake a narrow and wide replication of ’Are US Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence’ by Chalfin and McCrary. Using data from medium to large cities in the United States from 1960 to 2010, the authors estimate the effect of police on crime. To correct for the presence of measurement error, they propose to combine the information from two proxies of the police variable within the generalized method of moments framework. Throughout our replication exercise, we find that, in general, the original results are robust to computation in R compared to STATA and to the inclusion of more recent data (until 2019).
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Decomposing India’s Trade Ratio: 1980-2021
Advait Moharir, Arjun Jayadev, and JW Mason
Development and Change 2023
External balance is a critical constraint in the macroeconomic dynamics of a developing economy. Typically, external adjustment is said to occur through changes in the real exchange rate, and implicitly in the terms of trade. This article decomposes India’s merchandise trade ratio into three parts, namely, change in terms of trade, relative expenditure growth and relative import intensity over the period 1980‒2021. It finds that terms of trade contribute little to the evolution of India’s trade ratio from the 1990s. Instead, falling relative expenditure growth, due to India growing faster than its trade partners and, rising relative import intensity, due to a reduction in India’s reliance on imports relative to its partners, explain a large share of the change in the trade ratio post-1991. Devaluations have not contributed to the improvement in the trade ratio, while export growth and reduced domestic intensity have been critical.
2022
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Fiscal rules and debt dynamics in India
Advait Moharir
Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies 2022
Using an accounting framework, I examine the evolution of national and sub-national public debt in India from 1981 to 2017, with reference to the FRBM Review Committee Report, which stipulates the debt targets at 60% and 20%, respectively. I find that a larger share of debt movement is explained by changes in interest rate, growth and inflation, than by accumulation of new debt, for both national and sub-national debt. Simulations show that a strict perusal of the debt targets will force the government to run surpluses, while relaxing the targets generates fiscal space up to 4% of the GDP.
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Monetary Fiscal Coordination and the Evolution of Public Debt
Advait Moharir
Economic and Political Weekly 2022
Using an accounting framework, this article simulates the evolution of the debt ratio based on four policy interventions. It recommends pursuing an expansionary monetary policy combined with an equally active and complementary fi scal policy. The article also says that monetary policy should target the debt ratio, while fiscal policy should target output.
2019
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Shadow Banking In India: Nature, Trends, Concerns And Policy Interventions
Sashi Sivramkrishna, Soyra Gune, Kasturi Kandalam, and Advait Moharir
Review of Economic and Business Studies 2019
While the origin of shadow banks may be traced to the 1970s, developing countries have witnessed a massive growth of shadow banks in more recent decades. India too has seen a similar growth in shadow banks; however, the recent 2018 collapse of IL&FS Group, a major shadow bank, disrupted the credit cycle, stalled investment and even affected overall GDP growth. With experts warning that shadow banks are susceptible to systemic risks and crisis, it becomes imperative to understand the shadow banking system better. In this paper, we use exploratory data analysis,both quantitative and qualitative, to draw attention to the need for definitional clarity in the concept of shadow banks and how they operate. Trends in Indian shadow banking are discussed using data drawn from secondary sources. Systemic risks in India’s shadow banking sector are identified and policy interventions are discussed. The study is imperative for highlighting the importance of shadow banking in India, its growth and the evolving policy interventions regulating this important component of the financial system.
Working Papers
Work in Progress
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Measurement Issues in India’s GDP: A Synthetic Control Approach
Advait Moharir
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Errors-in-Variables Models with Multiple Proxies
Advait Moharir, Federico Crudu, and Zsolt Snador
Other Writing
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Interstate Development and Disparity: An Unsupervised Learning Approach
Advait Moharir, and Rajendran Narayanan
Economic and Political Weekly Sep 2024
The relationship between inequality and social welfare is an important yet understudied one. Using state-leveldata, a critical replication of a study conducted in the Economic Survey in 2021 is undertaken and it is found that the claimed positive inequality-welfare correlation does not hold. Then, unsupervised learning methods — principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering are used to classify states into groups based on a gamut of welfare indicators. It is found that some clusters form neatly around geographical divisions (north versus south) and confirm well-established developmental facts; significant heterogeneity among other regions (North-East) that do not adhere to established narratives is documented; and the development gap between states is found to be persistent and path-dependent. Finally, the need to strengthen rights-based legislations and establish a set of universal basic rights to course-correct for persistent inequalities is underscored.
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An inheritance tax will help reduce inequality
Advait Moharir, and Rajendran Narayanan
The Hindu May 2024
Sam Pitroda suggested an inheritance tax in India and the BJP has objected to it. The authors argue how inequality is a growing problem and how progressive taxes such as the inheritance tax and land value tax can help reduce it.
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High Rates Drive India’s Public Debt. Austerity Will Drive India Off a Cliff
Advait Moharir
May 2020
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Understanding India’s ‘Federalism’, and 2020’s Fiscal Troubles
Advait Moharir
May 2020